Alec Saunders SquawkBox

I’m sitting in the Presence and IM general session at VON.  Kudos to Carl Ford for having organized this.  It’s the dream panel for this topic, which I unsuccesfully tried to recruit twice previously.  The panelists are:

• Jeff Bonforte, Director of Voice Product Management, Yahoo!
• Dan Casey, Director, Windows Live VoIP and Messenger Product Management, Microsoft
• Mike Jazayeri, Product Manager, Real-Time Communications & Google Talk, Google
• Ragui Kamel, Sr. Vice President & General Manager, AOL Voice Services, America Online
• Nitzan Shaer, Director, Mobile Devices, Skype

There were some lovely comments made vis a vis modalities, and how younger people are using it.  Love the anecdotes.  Ragui talks about his daughter and their friends at McGill.  People talking about kids using the phone to call their friends and “get online”.

Some very interesting comments on video too.  Both Microsoft and Yahoo! have have had video for some time, and have lots of experience with it.  The Skype and Google team talk about “what happens when it’s free” — people tend to leave it running continuously. 

Ragui Kamel is talking about video telephony versus other models.  His research says there’s no market for the talking head phenomenon — I call it the talking forehead!  Video has been around for a long time, and there’s no real reason to think that demand has changed.  But, he talks about short videos — “here’s my new apartment” — and how people use video as an adjunct to a voice or IM conversation.  YouTube anyone?

Carl asks for numbers?  Consensus is that streaming is by far the norm, as opposed to two way conversation. Video is technically challenging.   Both people have to have usable working cameras!  I can relate.  I’ve been both a SightSpeed and Skype video user, and it’s not always the simplest experience. 

There’s an interesting discussion of presence going on.  Jeff Bonforte has just given a long view of his vision of the future, with repeated references to iotum (thank you Jeff!).  His view is that rather than blasting out my presence continuously, applications should be enabled with presence.  Wouldn’t it be great if the blog posting I am reading shows the last three or four people I know who have also read the posting?

Ragui has taken the conversation around to the idea of platform.  He believes that the future will be an ecosystem of third parties leveraging platform services, such as presence.  Here here!

Nitzan from Skype makes the iotum business case.  You need to be able to expose different elements to different people based on their relationship with you. 

Shifting gears — Carl asks how important is mobile?  Nitzan from Skype quotes some statistics and concludes that mobile is the next platform.  What’s holding it back?  Channels, and the operators that control them.  He suggests that WiFi may be a solution, but there are challenges around QoS. 

It’s a fascinating discussion. Ragui thinks that the problem of nomadic use has been solved.  Jeff, on the other hand, thinks that mobile sucks.  The devices, the networks, the operating systems — he gives them all a C.  Jazayeri largely agrees with Jeff.  Ragui jumps back in and says “we all carry a nomadic device — a mobile PC, or a cellular phone.”  He observes that we have too many numbers and that the one number value proposition is a compelling proposition for customers.  Presence and location based services need to come together as well. 

Microsoft’s Dan Casey talks about opening up the MSN and Yahoo! networks to each other.  It’s a hard problem.  Jeff Bonforte jumps in and says “we don’t want to recreate the mess of SMTP on IM”.  He’s raising the spectre of SPIM.  A cynic might say that he’s simply trying to protect his walled garden.  Ragui joins in and makes the same point.  Jazayeri notes that pairwise agreements can’t scale (yes!), and makes the case for industry standards.   He makes the very rational case that perhaps SPIM and security issues will emerge, but the only sensible solution is  to work through them as an industry.  I agree.  Frankly, I don’t think most customers want to hear about another interop agreement.  Users don’t want to be locked into the gulags of Soviet IM-Istan anymore! 

It’s spawned an interesting discussion between Skype’s Nitzan and Yahoo!’s Bonforte over the value of VoIP.  Yahoo! is focusing on making sure that when the toll arbitrage play is over (something which has been predicted for more than a decade, by the way), that Yahoo! has a value added position.  Nitzan, on the other hand, is focused on quality and cost. 

Carl is springing a trap.  He asks “Won’t you guys be more important than a mobile operator at that point?  When does the mobile operator simply supply access?”.  Nitzan gives a nuanced reply.  So long as the service isn’t perfect, competition on the basis of level of service will be real.  Bonforte compares the situation to the beginning of the ISP market.  His view is that, just as portals emerged after every ISP tried to build their own home page, the same will happen with VoIP.  He positions the experience he provides as a much better experience than other experiences — something that will lead to natural relationships with Verizon for presence enabled address books and so on.  Mike Jazayeri and Ragui Kamel both take the view that as more applications come to market, the operators are going to have to become providers of bandwidth rather than toll minutes. 

A question from the audience is how the mobile operators business will change in this scenario.  Won’t the wireless provider be reduced to being a mobile, commodity ISP?  The consensus at the table is that whether it’s minutes, or bandwidth being charged for, the total cost of service to the consumer, across all media, is at least staying constant, if not increasing.  That’s a view that’s consistent with historical data provided by the FCC also.  It’s also a position not inconsistent with the Voice 2.0 view of the world, which says that revenues must shift to applications away from tolls.

Another audience question is about enterprise use.  What are the enterprise plans for each of these vendors?  Jeff Bonforte jumps in and notes that his usage spikes during 9 to 5 in every market. We saw that a few weeks ago in the Cornell study of Skype usage that was released also.  Both Microsoft’s Dan Casey, and AOLs Ragui Kamel note that their companies have business offerings.  The AOL offering includes encryption, which I wasn’t aware of.

Another interop and peering question.  Jazayeri is the only one who responds, because Google is the only vendor with an interop story.

A question on business models asks how long the services can remain free.  Deftly handled by all parties, the observation is that advertising and other models allow the calls to remain free.  The Skype guy tries to drag it back to click to call too.

Digium’s Mark Spencer, at the back of the room, asks about their use of Open Source.  Jazayeri talks to the fact that Google is a heavy user of open source, and supports open source.   Bonforte points out that David Filo still contributes to OpenBSD, and that thousands of Yahoo! engineers also contribute to open source.

Carl asks for 18 month predictions.  Microsoft and Yahoo! predict very little big changes.  It’s too short a time.  Skype says “Wow… 18 months is a long time”, and predicts a lot of changes, especially in making this stuff more accessible to more consumers.  He sees a large scale shift in consumers, making it more a part of every day life.  Google says on integration and interop, expect big changes.  That’s the stuff we can control.  AOL’s Ragui Kamel gives the best answer, with five things we can expect:

1. Great interworking, more openness
2. More open platform, more third party developers
3. A greater move toward nomadic use of the network.
4. An integration of IM, and voice into Applications.
5. We’ll all be sitting on a panel at VON2

My take?  This is a far more compelling articulation of vision than I’ve seen in the last couple of sessions like this.  It’s nice to see these guys finally articulate an application-centric vision, in varying degrees.  Kudos to Carl for a great job managing the session.  The one fly in the ointment?  The gulag model (sorry… walled garden) for networks is still in play. 

It’s already started.  On my way to our first meeting, Howard and I bumped into Will Stofega, who was getting a demo of Unyte, from WebDialogs President and CEO Lou Guercia.  Unyte is a collaboration application for Skype.  It lets you:

• Share any application on your desktop, or every application on your desktop
• Collaborate with Skype users and non-Skype users alike.
• Easily invite people to collaborate via email, or from within Skype. 

In my head, I was comparing this simple browser based service with Microsoft LiveMeeting, which we use virtually every day to make presentations to customers, investors, and press people.  LiveMeeting has a lot of bells and whistles which Unyte doesn’t have.  It can, for instance, record meetings, annotate slides, and perform countless other tasks… none of which we use however. 

Unyte has been in beta for some time.  Since putting it up on the Skype homepage, Lou Guercia told me, they’ve had 150,000 users try it for free.  They’re just about to go commercial with very aggressive pricing that will definitely make this an attractive alternative to Webex or Microsoft Livemeeting.

That’s what a chance encounter at VON is all about…

“…after a long stint as a low-cost PSTN replacement technology, VoIP is finally beginning to evolve and become part of the web fabric. This is critical – because in the future, voice will just become a feature, to be embedded in different apps”, writes Om Malik in his VON Preview.   Om is predicting announcements from Jajah, Radio Handi, iSkoot and others.  Andy Abramson also confirms that xConnect is in a peering play, and that Vapps is in a conferencing deal with Yahoo. 

Watch for up to the minute coverage on the Vonosphere, as well.  It’s looking like there will be plenty of interesting new applications here.

Montreal based VoxLib took the wraps off their Vox for Skype application today.  This little number gives you access to Skype from any mobile phone, anywhere, without having to install any software on the telephone. It gives you the ability to see which of your Skype buddies is online,  the ability to contact them, and the ability to call any phone number using Skype. 

Vox has two modes:

1. Skype-In mode is for Skype users who have a Skype-In number.  You simply call your own Skype-In number, and interact with the Skype running on your desktop, using DTMF tones from the cell phone keypad.
2. SMS mode is for Skype users who don’t have a Skype-In number — like all of us deprived Canucks living here in the great white north.  To use Vox, you send an SMS message to the VOX server, specifying either the name of the person you want to reach, or the PSTN number you want to reach.  Or, you can query it, and receive a list of who is currently available on Skype.

My initial reaction was to say that it would make more sense to have a client on the handset, the way that EQO has built their system.  However, after a brief chat with VoxLib CEO Stephane Marceau last week, I understood the logic of their choice to use SMS or Skype-In.  Marceau explained that their goal was to ensure that Vox was usable by any Skype user, not just users of specific handsets.  He cited statistics showing that the number of people who have downloaded and installed software on handsets is a tiny percentage of cellular telephone users, whereas everyone today has an SMS capable phone.  Moreover, who hasn’t interacted with an IVR at some point?

It’s a clever idea.  My one complaint is that it requires me to leave Skype turned on in “chat with anyone” mode, rather than “only chat with people in my buddylist” mode.  Although it’s the default, I turned “chat with anyone” off a loang time ago when I became inundated in chat requests. 

Available for download today at www.voxlib.com

Harvesting peppers in the fall is becoming an annual rite around our house. To the left are a few habaneros I harvested yesterday, and then dropped into a wine glass for a photo.  Habaneros are the hottest peppers I’ve ever grown, and I was a little concerned that, with their 115 day season, we might not get any ripe peppers here in the great white north.  We got lucky, I guess.  We also brought in Jalapeno, Serrano, and Poblano peppers yesterday. 

I first started eating hot peppers after my doctors told me my cholesteral was too high.  I eliminated most fats from my diet, and looking for new ways to flavour food, stumbled onto peppers.  They’re fascinating because of the many flavours in them.  Serrano’s tingle your lips, and the flat part and tip of your tongue.  In contrast, Habanero’s are a slow burn in the back of your throat.  When green, peppers are mostly heat.  When allowed to ripen, they’re sweet as well.  When you smoke a Poblano, it becomes a sweet spicy delicacy called Ancho.  Smoke a Habanero, and you get a mellow deep Chipotle. 

The variations on this simple vegetable seem limitless!

The other annual fall rite I participate in is VON.  This year, I’m hoping for a VON like my hot pepper harvest — full of new ideas, interesting people, and opportunities to create.  More than any prior year, this year feels as if it’s going to be a breakthrough, especially in new voice applications.

I’m flying to Boston this morning.  See you there!