Alec Saunders SquawkBox

Asterisk is hot, no doubt.  But how hot?  Recently I’ve been trying to wrap my head around useful Asterisk statistics in order to figure this question out.  However, I can’t find any analyst reports, or other market research that gives a definitive answer on how quickly they’re growing, and their current and forecasted market share. So, in the interests of figuring this out, I’ll share what I know, and in return, if you know something I don’t, either add it as a comment to this thread, or email it to me.  Perhaps we can figure it out together.

Here’s what I know:

Momentum: in January 2004, Mark Spencer reported 20,000 Asterisk installations globally.  In June 2005, he was saying 200,000.  In January of 2006 he said "over 250,000". 

Usage: On Sunday, I was chatting with Jeff Pulver. He told me that, right then, well over half of his FWD users online were using Asterisk.

Ecosystem: VoIP-info lists probably 200 companies who today will ship turnkey Asterisk solutions to customers — hardware, software and phones.  VoIP-info also lists many more consultants who will help you with an Asterisk system. 

Partners: There have been some prominent startups using Asterisk, such as Fonality.  Less visible, but probably more important, are Intel (working with Digium on incorporating drivers for their Dialogic products into Asterisk), Linksys (their new SME PBX, the SPA9000 uses Asterisk), and IBM (developing a fault tolerant Asterisk).

I dropped by Om Malik’s office at Business 2.0 yesterday, and got a pleasant surprise.  With a big grin on his face, he handed me a copy of the March issue, and said "Congratulations". This issue highlights "The Next Net 25" — 25 companies that are reinventing the web.  There, on page 94, iotum is named as one of the five companies that Business 2.0 believes is reinventing the phone. 

Congratulations to Skype, SIPphone, Vivox, and Fonality who were also named. 

Over the last couple of days I’ve had a number of conversations with investors about the whole concept of "smart money".  Smart money is the idea that an investor brings more to the table than just a chequebook.  They might bring business acumen, mentoring, customer contacts, or strategic expertise as well.  The smart money argument is one that is frequently used to justify giving a premium to an investor — additional preferences, board seats, and so on.

My view on the whole smart money argument is pretty simple.  I try to assess whether I could buy that expertise by hiring well vs buy it by selling a piece of the company.  After all, an investor may or may not provide the promised value after the transaction is executed, but I can always fire an underperforming an employee.

One investor candidly told me "The difference between smart money and dumb money, most often, is that smart money isn’t stupid.".  What he meant by that is that every VC into the company is going to want a board seat.  Bad board members can be a huge distraction when running a company.  The best board members are "not stupid".  They add value, but don’t take the company don’t blind alleys.

Another investor talked about structuring his investment so that a portion of the equity owned was based on the cash put it on, and a portion was earned based on his performance on behalf of the company.  That sounds great, but it also implies a level of involvement that a traditional investor might not have.  I think you’d have to be sure that you’re very comfortable with the investor in that scenario.

Either way, the concept of smart money is very common.  The challenge is to make sure you’re getting what you pay for.