Archive for September 12th, 2005

Roundup: Skype / EBay Stories

It’s been a crazy day, and I am just now filtering through what Bloglines caught on the Skype / EBay story.  In alphabetical order, here are the most insightful posts I found in my inbox.

AFP: EBay takes on Internet telephony with Skype deal. "EBay said Skype will add more functions including video and toolbars for Microsoft Outlook and Internet Explorer, on top of premium services already on offer such as voicemail, call forwarding and conference calling." Softphones are platforms!

Andy Abramson: Now That eBay Owns Skype… "While today’s announcement answers alot of questions, and ends speculation, one has to now look at the implications and figure out if eBay may have just gotten taken at the auction block." Time will tell.

Greg Galitzine: eBay & Skype: A Done Deal. "$4.1 Billion? Excuse me, but that’s insane." I’ll have a Super Big Gulp, please!

Irwin Lazar: eBay buys Skype for $4.1 Billion.  "If I were Microsoft I’d be pretty happy right now, the Teleo acquisition is going to position them to offer a very strong alternative to Skype for the average consumer. This is much better for Microsoft than Skype being acquired by a phone company. "  I’m not so sure.  Skype was already eating into Microsoft’s IM traffic.  Now it will have money behind it to eat faster.

Jeff Pulver: End of an Era? eBay to purchase Skype. "looks like the market for enabling end-to-end IP Communications (between end-users not looking to do ecommerce) is going to be wide open again." Again, I’m not so sure.  People are assuming Skype will leave the horizontal VoIP market and become solely about e-Commerce.  That’s not what Niklas and Meg said on the conference call.

Jon Arnold: Skype/Ebay - the Dominoes are About to Fall - We Are Stardust… "the idealism is gone, and the Woodstock era is over. It’s a business, and they know this as much as anybody else. I’m very excited about this, and happy for what Skype has accomplished, and what this may signal in the weeks to come. The dominoes have been falling for a few weeks now, but this is a big one, ushering in the billion dollar valuation of VoIP companies." Let’s hope so.

News.com: Analysts mixed on eBay’s purchase of Skype. "eBay’s acquisition of Skype illustrates how little difference there is between commerce and information marketplaces today. The gap between traditional search engines and portals, such as Yahoo, Microsoft’s MSN and Google, and online shopping centers, such as Amazon.com and eBay.com, is rapidly shrinking."

Om Malik: SkypeBay done for $4.1 Billion. "that works out to about $20 million/Skype employee - which is ten times what Cisco paid at the top of the bubble when it bought companies." About 10 times the going rate for Microsoft too.

Orange Hues: Why Ebay Bought Skype. "If you’re still skeptical, take out some time to go through the Ebay’s news release presentation of the deal and your skepticism will evaporate." Agreed.  It’s a very well constructed presentation.

PCWorld:  EBay Buys Skype for $2.6 Billion. "China Telecom, one of China’s two principal carriers, last week began cracking down on Internet users in southern China who use Skype’s SkypeOut service to make international phone calls from their computers. Under existing regulations in China, only licensed carriers are allowed to offer VOIP services that link computers and telephones. With the acquisition of Skype, EBay will now have to handle this issue and face the political ramifications of a China Telecom crackdown on SkypeOut." Doh!

Rich Tehrani: eBay Buys Skype for $2.6 Billion. "Ebay has finally helped the market put a valuation on a VoIP company and I am sure VCs and other companies in the space are ecstatic." Woo hoo!

Skype Journal: Skype - Chapter 2. "eBay presents a challenge for building business in a way that Skype was lacking. It will force them to be both more innovative, confident and decisive about their direction. Part of this deal is still a theorectical stake in the ground. That makes it at once both exciting, scary and for the competitors, some who I think may be stupidly laughing. It is now even more important that they have a " Skype straegy". I also think some VON presentations are getting a rethink today."  And how! The application story will now move to front and center.

Skype Journal: Man on the Skype Interviews: What does the eBay-Skype deal mean to you?.  "The road for the next year will be tough as cultures merge and evolve, but the end result will likely be very positive, as many developers above indicated. Skype will likely get the resources it needs to compete." EBay gives Skype muscle.

Ted Wallingford: Opinions on the eBay / Skype Deal. "the possibilities for eBay and Skype are indeed endless. And  this makes it far less likely that Skype will fall into the hands of Microsoft"

Telepocalypse: eBay and Skype: Back to basics. "If you’re a telco, now is a great time to cross your chest and start saying your Hail Marys. Someone with deep pockets is about to give away telephony to support their adjacent transaction business. Browsers are free — as long as enough people tip Bill G., search is free — as long as enough people leave a few cents in Larry, Sergey and Eric’s pension plan. And telephony will be free — as long as you click the “pay here” button on your Skype-powered eBay telephony device often enough."  This is one of the best posts of the day.

Tom Keating: eBay and Skype a done deal. "I wasn’t crazy about the idea last week over eBay paying >$3 billion for Skype and I’m still not crazy about it now." Tom thinks they should have just built their own.

2005-09-12 11:28 pm | 4 Comments »

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More EBay / Skype Predictions

David Gibbons, who writes a blog called Poductivity, left a short comment here this afternoon inviting comment on this post.  Well worth reading, especially for the use cases:

Instead of just buying your ipod on eBay, you will now also browse ebay for cheap support for your ipod when it breaks. If you find a service provider you like, you’ll chat with them live, instantly, simply by clicking on their ebay profile. When you’ve been helped and your call is complete, your ebay/skype account will be debited a service fee which will be divided up between skype for the communications piece, ebay for the marketplace piece and the ebay seller / consultant.

David believes that this acquisition is the beginning of a giant services business opportunity for EBay.  He concludes his posting with:

Try simply asking yourself these 2 questions:

Q1 - What is the consumer spending category that is primarily fulfilled via the voice channel?
A - Professional Services.

Q2 - What is the largest consumer spending category not / poorly represented on eBay today?
A - Professional Services.

It’s not just professional services, though.  It’s all solution oriented selling that is enabled by this model, whether that be travel, a new car, or fixing your PC. Great insights!

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Positive Feedback on Skype Acquisition

From Gizmodo: EBay Buys Skype, Leaves Positive Feedback, Gets Blue Star

…millions of weird ashtray collectors can call each other immediately when they see a rare, near mint snoopy acrylic for sale in Illinois. It will also allow these selfsame weird ashtray collectors to stalk each other, thereby turning eBay into the world’s largest flea market/speed dating site. Expect a massive rise in the number of reflected images of some fat guy’s junk in the headstock of a 1969 Les Paul.

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The Skype Webcast

Been sitting and listening to the Skype Webcast.  I’d recommend downloading the slides before beginning because the synchronization with the slides on the call is off.   Some of what struck me:

  • Skype’s growth, which everyone acknowledges has been phenomenal, is simply astounding.  At 26 months, Skype has over 50 million users.  Compared to EBay and PayPal, which everyone agreed was phenomenal in it’s day, Skype is more than a 5x speed improvement.
  • Skype, with it’s proprietary protocol, is the largest generator of SIP packets on the web today.  Yes, you read that correctly.  There is a protocol conversion at the gateway from Skype to SIP to PSTN.
  • This is all about monetizing e-Commerce.  Lead generation is the next big frontier for EBay, in order to facilitate complex, high end / high touch transactions.  Whitman talked about eBay with Skype being able to generate $2 to $12 per lead from merchants.  She expects Skype to accelerate categories like motors, collectibles, and business and industrial, which represent 40% of EBay’s business today.
  • Presence and availability, coupled with privacy, are one of the key drivers.  This ties back to my vision of me-centric communications.  The vision is to accelerate commerce, while addressing privacy issues, by including voice.
  • 25% of today’s Skype users are business users.  46% of North American VoIP minutes are Skype.  36% of VoIP users use Skype.
  • 10 of the 78 pages of the presentation were about Skype’s ecosystem of partners and applications.  If there were any doubts that Skype is a platform, it should be clear from this presentation what Skype’s view is.

So, where might this go?

  • Skype will become an adjunct, or maybe even a replacement, for the business phone system.  You’ve been seeing inklings of this for a little while.  Users are using the new call-forwarding feature to create small queues in their businesses.  The Skype Journal yesterday published a piece on the need for Skype gateways to facilitate PBX to PBX traffic.  One of the hot Skype Application categories is CRM.  Now this integration will accelerate.
  • Payment will become a feature of ordinary phone systems.  I always thought that this would be done through an interface to the banking network, and via a feature on your handset that would store your banking information securely.  With this announcement, it will be PayPal. 
  • EBay will evolve from being a silent auction to an online Souk.  People will talk, haggle, and discuss the details of the purchase.  You won’t ever be able to simply post an offering and forget about it, the way EBay has worked in the past.

It’s a helluva vision.  Business and individuals, interconnected, empowered, and transacting business in the most natural way possible — by voice.  

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Skype Founders Speak

Blog posting on the Skype Developer Blog from Niklas and Januus

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